RMB-NDF is now tading at 6.4005 - the first time it implies Depreciation in 1yr horizon

Submitted by Tractus Asset … on Thu, 09/22/2011 - 17:05

Liquidity outflow…  the chatter about a China hard landing is growing.

A >5% CNH downside swing is just a possibility, not a certainty. In fact, not even a high probability event. Though we suppose people have underpriced this probability. Perhaps some have confused the characteristics of onshore CNY with offshore CNH. The CNY and CNH have different volatilities and serve different political/economic purposes.

Some Dim Sum bonds (CNH denominated bonds) are leveraged 10:1 and financed in USD.